2021-10-19 09:19:19
How do we do science?
How do we get data?
Experimental studies
- The approach used in almost all bench/lab sciences.
- Clinical trials in Public Health and Medicine.
- Potentially most powerful because we have most control.
- Not always possible.
Observational studies
- Widely used in Public Health and other areas (e.g., Sociology, Psychology, Economics, Geology).
- Not as powerful as experimental studies.
- Often the only option.
Jim Borgman
Simulation/modeling studies
- Computer models can represent a real system.
- Simulated data is not as good as real data.
- Often the only option.
Modeling definition
- The term modeling usually means (in science) the description and analysis of a system using mathematical or computational models.
- Many different types of modeling approaches exist. Simulation models are one type (with many subtypes).
Not this
This one
Simulation models
Computer models for some scenario (e.g. the spread of flu or COVID in the US) to understand what is going on, to make forecasts and to evaluate the impact of different interventions.
Germann et al 2006 PNAS
Simulation modeling areas
Source: NOAA
- Weather forecasting.
- Simulations of man-made, engineered system.
- Predicting the economy.
- Infectious disease transmission.
Simulation modeling overview
- Build a model that simulates the process of disease transmission. Include any details that are relevant for the question, omit everything else.
NY Times
Using models I
Using models I
Using models II
Learning simulation modeling - challenges
- It takes time to learn how to build, use and interpret models.
- One generally needs to write code to build simulation models.