Statistical analysis and modeling of vaccines

Slides: https://www.andreashandel.com/presentations/

2025-10-13

Introduction

Current approaches to dose choice

  • A few doses are explored in phase I/II trials, one is chosen for phase III and licensure.

Example of BioNTech/Pfizer COVID Vaccine

Claim: Knowing in more detail how dose impacts host response following vaccination might help optimize vaccines.

Statistical analysis of the role of dose for norovirus antibody responses

Motivation

  • Most vaccines aim to induce strong antibody responses.
  • For a future norovirus vaccine, it is important to understand how dose impacts antibody responses.
  • It is also informative to understand if there are differences in antibody kinetics following infection vs. vaccination.

Study design

Models

Exponential decay model: \[ y_1(t) = \frac{p_1}{1+e^{(-g_1*(t-k_1))}}e^{-d_1*t} \]

Power-law decay model: \[ y_2(t) = \frac{p_2}{1+e^{(-g_2*((t+1)-k_2))}}(t+1)^{-d_2} \]

Vaccination antibody time-series